Software Development Predictions for 2009
New Year's is a great occasion for predictions on what 2009 might have in store for the software development market. IT resources will be limited and business pressures higher but only time will tell. Here are few thoughts about what might come up in 2009.
Microsoft struggles to retool its image
Expect more overtures from Redmond toward the open source community as Microsoft continues to try to soften its image as an anticompetitive thung.
Interest in Windows Azure and related cloud computing technologies will continue to grow throughout 2009. Also, Microsoft's "software plus services" concept is a strong direction, but it needs to be sure that its developer ecosystem comes along for the ride. As Steve Ballmer so famously observed, Microsoft achieved much of its success through the hard work of its ISV partners.
Тhe big distraction next year will be Windows 7. If Microsoft can't get its OS house in order, it's going to have a hard time convincing developers of the value of its new technologies.
Java moves toward an open source mindset
The major proprietary app server vendors are likely to continue to dominate the market in 2009, but expect the movement in favor of 100-percent open source Java stacks to grow as the year rolls on. As awareness of Java's new, open source status spreads, expect developers to view the technology in a different light and begin choosing their vendors accordingly.
Twilight for Sun Microsystems?
JavaFX is interesting technology, but it's too arcane and far too late to the party to become a serious competitor to Adobe or Microsoft. And as a mobile platform it's stillborn; Adobe has struggled for years to make Flash a major player in the U.S. mobile space, to little success. By comparison, a Sun-dominated smartphone applications market is a pipe dream -- particularly given Apple's well-documented disinterest in Java for the iPhone.
2009 may see the beginnings of the Big Cataclysm for Sun. Executive change could be in the cards, but what top talent would risk taking on such a toxic company now? Sun's best option may be simply to sell itself off -- piece by piece, if it has to. Big Blue already does as good a job of marketing and selling Sun's technologies as Sun does. Maybe Sun could become a subsidiary of IBM Labs?
The Web loses its version number
While the Web itself won't lose any popularity, however, expect a little less emphasis on the "Web 2.0" moniker in 2009. For starters, it hardly means anything anymore -- if it ever did. But AJAX and related technologies still haven't proven their value for a lot of enterprise applications, beyond adding UI flash. What Web 2.0 capabilities do make their way into business applications will be the result of open source toolkits such as Dojo.
The economy looms large
Among enterprise customers, tightening budgets are likely to put the kibosh on many an ambitious new project. But smart companies will realize that process automation is one of the best ways to reduce costs in any business. Now may actually be the ideal time to revisit old software schemes that got shelved back when staffing budgets were flush.
Layoffs and hiring freezes will mean there are fewer developers to go around, however, which could make smart projects infeasible for the time being.
Comments
Be the first to write a comment
You must me logged in to write a comment.