No future for iTunes-like video services

Online video sites that sell shows and movies such as Apple Inc.'s iTunes will likely peak this year, but after that growth is expected to slow down as more content is made available on free resource sites supported by advertising.

"Free is going to win," said Forrester Research analyst James McQuivey, the author of the study.

Sales of movies and television shows are expected to almost triple to $279 million in 2007 from an estimated $98 million last year. Yet, Forrester estimated that sales growth is not likely to triple or even double in 2008 and beyond, after early adopters and media addicts have already started using the services.

McQuivey advises media companies to make their content available on all distribution platforms, but pay more attention to those that let users share content within a home network.